In a long-term comparison of electoral models less than a year after the parliamentary elections, one can see how the other chances of political parties are developing. We update the data regularly with each survey. However, they capture the mood of the public at the time of data collection, not at the time of publication of the survey.
The model (so-called poll of polls) does not replace individual agency surveys, but is based on them in detailed calculations of the overall weighted average for each of the parties.
Development over time
The key chart (below) for poll interpretations includes the evolution of all models for all agencies since the 2021 election.
With each new survey, a new recalculation of the weighted average takes place according to the Mandáty.cz methodology. This is then taken into account for the time when the survey itself was conducted, not when the given agency published it – the recorded sentiments of the voters correspond to the time when the survey was conducted, which can be several weeks back.
And because voter opinions continue to evolve over time, for example, a poll published in March carries significantly less weight than the most recent poll published in July. This is why the resulting average in the chart is time-weighted.
The results themselves are broken down by individual parties, not coalitions. The reason is that all but one of the agencies inquire about electoral preferences for individual parties.
How to read a chart and how to understand it
- After hovering the mouse, details about the survey will be displayed.
- The lines represent the weighted mean.
- Click on the menu to filter individual agencies.
- Click on the legend to filter individual pages. Clicking again will show the original view with all pages.
- Why does the graph say “elections + STEM” in the first period? The coalition groups ODS + TOP 09 + KDU-ČSL and Piráti + STAN ran in the parliamentary elections. It was logically impossible to read from the election results which specific party the voters chose. This was helped by a detailed survey by the STEM agency, which asked respondents precisely about their preferences by party.
Survey Date: All agencies conduct surveys in some time span. We consider the survey date to be the midpoint date when the survey was conducted, not the date it was published.
Why are surveys different?
An electoral model is the closest estimate of how the elections would turn out at a given time. It includes responses from respondents who are about to vote. They are either decisions for a specific party or group, or they hesitate between several options. Agencies differ in the form and method of polling, some address voters in person, others by phone or online.
A large weight for the final result of the election is represented by voters who at a given moment waver between several parties and/or are undecided to vote at all. For example, a month before the last elections to the House of Representatives, there were more than half of them. Their (in)activity then affects how much the surveys differ from the actual results – often significantly. Parties that manage to activate undecided voters and especially non-voters, then claim a better result in the elections.